Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (Divs. 2J3KL)

Regional Peer Review Process - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 19 – 23, 2018
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Brian Healey

Context

In November 2010, a limit reference point, as described in the decision-making framework developed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) for the application of precautionary approach in fisheries, was determined for northern cod in NAFO Divs. 2J+3KL (DFO 2011). A Regional Northern Cod Framework Review Process was held November 30 - December 4, 2015 to review multiple models of population dynamics, and to discuss the utility of various data sets available for assessing this stock (DFO 2016a). The status of the stock was last fully assessed in March 2016 (DFO 2016b) based on the new integrated state space model that incorporates much of the information about the productivity of the stock. A status update was completed in 2017 (DFO 2017) and indicated that the stock is improving but remains in the critical zone. The current assessment is requested by Fisheries Management Branch to provide the Minister with detailed advice on the status of the stock in order to inform management decisions for the 2018 fishing season.

Objective

• Provide an ecosystem overview (e.g., physical and biological oceanography, predators, prey) for the stock. If possible, this information should be integrated into the advice.
• Provide an assessment of the current status of cod in Divs. 2J3KL using information updated to 2018.
• Assess the current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the Limit Reference Point (Blim), total biomass, strength of year-classes entering the exploitable population in the next 1 to 3 years, exploitation rate, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, and other relevant biological characteristics.
• Identify the major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.
• To assist in the development of the management measures for 2018, conduct three year projections of Spawning Biomass relative to the limit reference point (with 95% CIs) assuming total removals are {0.8, 0.9, 1.0, 1.1, and 1.2} times the 2017 value.
• DFO's precautionary approach (PA) framework indicates there is zero tolerance for preventable decline. Identify the level of removals that provide a high probability (>95%) of continued stock growth over the medium to long term (5-10 years). If possible, provide the levels of removals that provide a 0.95 probability of 0, 25, 50 and 75% growth from the 2018 estimate of spawner biomass.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science and Fisheries Management
• Province of Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Fisheries and Land Resources
• Industry
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Other invited experts

References

DFO. 2011. Proceedings of the Newfoundland and Labrador Regional Atlantic Cod Framework Meeting: Reference Points and Projection Methods for Newfoundland cod stocks; November 22-26, 2010. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2010/053.

DFO. 2016a. Proceedings of the Northern Cod Framework Review Meeting; November 30 – December 4, 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2016/031.

DFO. 2016b. Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (NAFO Divs. 2J3KL) in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2016/026.

DFO. 2017. Northern (NAFO Divs. 2J3KL) Cod Stock Update. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2017/034.