Terms of Reference

Stock Status Update and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2018 Status and 2019 Forecast

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

September 2018
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Jaclyn Cleary

Context

Pacific Herring in British Columbia (BC) are managed based on five major stock management areas: Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), Central Coast (CC), Strait of Georgia (SOG), and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), and two minor stock management areas: Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

Annual assessments of Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts began in the late-1980s for all major stocks in British Columbia. Since 2006, the assessment has utilized an integrated statistical catch-age model fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and a fishery-independent abundance index of herring spawn (derived from an egg deposition survey) to estimate spawning biomass and to generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al., 2012, Cleary et al. 2018, DFO 2018a). Fisheries Management quota decisions since 2015 have been based on a model parameterization that assumes the spawn index is an absolute index of herring biomass (q=1). Science advice will follow this parameterization for 2018, following comparisons presented DFO 2016 (Table A1) and Cleary et al. 2018 (bridging analysis, Appendix D). The 2018 stock status update will use the same methodology as the assessment conducted in 2017, with updated data from the most recently available survey information.

In July 2018, a Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Regional Peer Review meeting (DFO 2018b^{Footnote 1}) reviewed and approved closed-loop simulation evaluation of management procedures (MPs) for two of the five Pacific Herring management areas (SOG, WCVI) to evaluate the performance of candidate MPs against a range of uncertain stock and fishery dynamics. The results supported the application of stock-specific evaluations rather than a generic harvest control rule approach. The review approved the evaluation process as appropriate for future simulation testing of management procedures for all Pacific Herring stocks.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested that DFO Science Branch provide stock status updates for Pacific Herring. The assessment and advice arising from this CSAS Science Response (SR) process will be used to support the development of the 2018/19 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP).

Objective

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, a CSAS Science Response will be developed to:

1. Present updated stock and fishery status to June 2018.
2. Present trends in estimated biomass, depletion, and recruitment for the five major stocks and assess stock status relative to reference points.
3. Summarize the spatial distribution of survey spawn biomass and proportions over years for each major stock area (e.g., by statistical area).
4. For the minor stock areas, present stock status updates using available spawn survey data and biological samples.
5. Provide harvest advice for 2019 for the five major and two minor stock areas.

Expected Publications

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO Science and Fisheries Management
• First Nations
• Fishing Industry
• Non-government Organizations

References

DFO 2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.

DFO 2016. Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2016 Status and 2017 Forecast. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Rep. 2016/052.

DFO 2017. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/030.

DFO 2018. Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2017 Status and 2018 Forecast. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2018/002.

Kronlund, A.R., Forrest, R.E., Cleary, J.S., and Grinnell, M.H. 2018. The selection and role of limit reference points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia, Canada. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/009. ix + 125p.

Martell, S.J., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.