Terms of Reference

Assessment Framework for 4X5Y Atlantic Cod: Part 2 – Review of Modelling Approaches

Regional Peer Review – Maritimes Region

November 6-8, 2018
St. Andrews, New Brunswick

Chairperson: Jennifer Ford

Context

Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) ranges from Georges Bank to northern Labrador in the Canadian Atlantic. There are several concentrations of Cod within this range, including those on the Southern Scotian Shelf and Bay of Fundy in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Divisions 4X and 5Y. In 2010, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assessed the southern population unit (4X5YZjm) as Endangered, and a Recovery Potential Assessment was completed in 2011. The last 4X5Y Cod stock assessment was conducted in 2008 (DFO 2009/018), with stock status updates provided in 2014 (DFO 2015/010), 2016 (DFO 2017/024) and 2017 (DFO 2018/020). This meeting follows Part 1 of the Assessment Framework, which was held in March 2018 and reviewed the data inputs and indices of abundance relevant for 4X5Y Cod (Andrushchenko et al. In prep.). A separate Stock Assessment meeting will be held in 2018 or 2019 to determine reference point values and stock status.

Objectives

The objectives of this second meeting are to assess a model(s) to monitor stock status and productivity, including:

1. Determine the methodology that can be used to reliably estimate the current stock size and fishing mortality levels of 4X5Y Cod.
2. Define the biomass limit reference point under the DFO Precautionary Framework and, if applicable, the fishing mortality reference point.
3. Determine forecasting methodology for population trajectories under current productivity and feasible harvest levels provided by fishery management.
4. Investigate data limited methods that could test the robustness of any proposed catch advice to uncertainties in stock assessment.
5. Identify ecosystem-level variables contributing to changes in spatial distribution of 4X5Y Cod.
6. Provide recommendations on the schedule for ongoing assessment of 4X5Y Cod. Identify indicators which would be used to characterize stock status in years between stock assessments and events that could trigger an earlier than scheduled assessment.
7. Identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps.

Expected Publications

• Proceedings
• Research Document

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science, Ecosystem Management, and Fisheries and Aquaculture Management)
• Provinces of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick
• Academics
• Indigenous communities/organizations
• Fishing industry
• Other invited experts

References

Andrushchenko, I., Clark, D., Irvine, F., MacEachern, E, Martin, R., and Wang, Y. (In preparation). 2018 4X5Y Atlantic Cod Framework Data Inputs.

DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2019/nnn. v + 99 p.

DFO. 2009. Assessment of Cod in division 4X in 2008. DFO. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2009/018.

DFO. 2015. 2014 4X5Yb Atlantic Cod Stock Status Update. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2015/010.

DFO. 2017. 2016 4X5Yb Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) Stock Status Update. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2017/024.

DFO. 2018. Stock Status Update of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) in NAFO Divisions 4X5Yb. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2018/020.