Terms of Reference

Assessment of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua) of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn (Nov. – April)) to 2018 with advice for fishing periods May 2019 to May 2023

Regional Peer Review – Gulf Region

February 20-21, 2019
Moncton, NB

Chairperson: Amélie Rondeau

Context

The last full assessment of the Atlantic cod stock in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (Gadus morhua; NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn Nov-April) was completed in March 2015 (DFO 2016a; Swain et al. 2015). A Recovery Potential Assessment (RPA) was conducted in February 2011 (DFO 2011). Both these analyses led to the conclusion that adult biomass in this stock was at the lowest level observed in the 60-year record and well below the limit reference point for this stock, the level below which the stock is considered to have suffered serious harm to its productivity. Research Vessel and sentinel biomass indices for pre-commercial and commercial sizes of Atlantic cod in recent years indicate that there has been no improvement in biomass since the last assessment and the commercial biomass remains at record low level (DFO 2017).

The directed fishery for southern Gulf cod (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn Nov-April) was closed in 1994-1997, 2003, and has remained closed since 2009. A total allowable catch of 300 t has been provided to cover by-catch in other groundfish fisheries, a limited recreational fishery, for scientific purposes, and to cover negotiated Aboriginal food, social and ceremonial agreements. In support of DFO Ecosystems and Fisheries Management multi-year management approach and request for advice for a TAC decision for May 2019 to May 2023 for the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic Cod, DFO Science Branch Gulf Region will undertake a peer review of the stock status of Atlantic Cod and develop management advice for the fishery on this stock.

Objective

To develop science advice in support of the multi-year TAC decision for Atlantic Cod (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn (Nov-April)) the following items will be considered.

• Amounts, age, and size structure of the catch of Atlantic cod from the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence fisheries to 2018.
• Indices of abundance of Atlantic Cod from the research vessel and sentinel surveys.
• Best estimates from a population model of the spawning stock biomass, recruitment, recruitment rates, and mortality rates (fishing, natural) to 2018.
• Status of the stock relative to defined Precautionary Approach reference points
• Population trajectories under current productivity (growth, recruitment, natural mortality) rates and assuming an annual 300 t bycatch of Atlantic Cod, and probabilities of the spawning stock biomass being in the critical zone, the cautious zone, or the healthy zone of the Precautionary Approach framework for 2019 to 2023.
• As per DFO (2016b) review and revise if required indicators which would be used to characterize stock status in the intervening years of the four-year assessment and management cycle and the changes in the indicators or in the characteristics of the fisheries that catch cod incidentally which would trigger a re-assessment earlier than the scheduled four-year assessment cycle.
• Identification of uncertainties and knowledge gaps.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Research Document(s)

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Ecosystems and Oceans Science, and Ecosystems and Fisheries Management)
• Fishing industry
• Aboriginal organizations
• External experts

References

DFO. 2011. Recovery Potential Assessment for the Laurentian South Designatable Unit of Atlantic Cod (Gadus morhua). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2011/028.

DFO. 2016a. Assessment of Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO Div. 4T-4Vn (Nov. – April)) to 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2015/061.

DFO. 2016b. Guidelines for providing interim-year updates and science advice for multi-year assessments. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2016/020.

DFO. 2017. Updated indices of abundance to 2016 for stocks of four groundfish species from NAFO Div. 4T. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2017/003.

Swain, D.P., Savoie, L., Cox, S.P., and Aubry, E. 2015. Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) stock of NAFO Div. 4T and 4Vn (November to April), March 2015. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2015/080. xiv + 114 p.