Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment of Northern Cod (Divs. 2J3KL)

Regional Peer Review Process - Newfoundland and Labrador Region

March 26-29, 2019
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Brian Healey

Context

The last stock assessment for Northern cod was completed in March 2018 (Fisheries and Oceans Canada [DFO] 2018). In January 2019, a Regional Peer Review Process was held to evaluate the Limit Reference Point (LRP) for Northern cod (DFO 2019). The peer review meeting reached a consensus that the method for determining the LRP and the reference point itself remained valid.

Detailed advice on the status of the stock was requested by Fisheries Management Branch to inform recommendations to the Minister for management decisions for the 2019 fishing season.

Objective

• Report on physical, chemical, and biological oceanographic conditions.
• Assess the current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to the LRP (B_lim), total biomass, strength of year-classes entering the exploitable population in the next 1 to 3 years, exploitation rate, fishing and natural mortality, distribution, and other relevant biological characteristics.
• Identify the major sources of uncertainty, where applicable.
• To assist in the development of the management measures for 2019, conduct three year projections of Spawning Biomass relative to the limit reference point (with 95% CIs) assuming total removals are (0.7, 0.85, 1.0, 1.15, and 1.3) times the 2018 value.
• DFO's Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework indicates there is zero tolerance for preventable decline. Identify the level of removals that provide a high probability (>95%) of continued stock growth over the medium to long term (5-10 years). If possible, provide the levels of removals that provide a 0.95 probability of 0, 25, 50 and 75% growth from the 2019 estimate of spawner biomass.

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Documents

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science and Fisheries Management
• Province of Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Fisheries and Land Resources
• Industry
• Academia
• Indigenous Groups
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Other invited experts

References

DFO. 2018. Stock assessment of Northern cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL) in 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2018/038. (Erratum: August 2018).

DFO. 2019. Evaluation of the Limit Reference Point for Northern Cod (NAFO Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. In press.