Terms of Reference

Development of a new Precautionary Approach Framework for Northern Shrimp in the Newfoundland and Labrador Region

Regional Peer Review – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

May 15-17, 2019
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Joanne Morgan

Context

The Precautionary Approach (PA) is a general philosophy to managing threats of serious or irreversible harm where there is scientific uncertainty. The application of precaution requires increased risk avoidance where there are risks of serious harm and high uncertainty. These conditions often apply in fisheries; therefore precaution should be incorporated in fisheries management.

Canada is committed domestically and internationally to the use of PA in fishery decision-making. Over the last few years, there have been several initiatives in Canada to define the PA in a fisheries context, to identify benchmarks that would be consistent with the approach and to apply it in fisheries management. The fundamental principles guiding this approach have been outlined in two key documents produced by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO):

1. The 2006 Science Advisory Report that identifies the minimal requirements for harvesting strategies to be compliant with the PA (DFO 2006); and
2. The 2009 Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009a) - a policy document to guide the incorporation of PA principles in the management of Canadian fisheries.

To be compliant with the PA, fisheries management plans should include harvest strategies that incorporate a science-based Limit Reference Point (LRP), as well as Upper Stock Reference (USR) and removal reference points. It is expected that the management decisions should respect the indicated actions in each of the stock zones (i.e., Healthy, Cautious, and Critical) in relation to these points.

Northern Shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Shrimp Fishing Areas (SFA) 4-6 are currently managed under a PA framework established following recommendations of a prior working group (DFO 2009b), where the Northern Shrimp LRP was defined as 30%, and the USR as 80%, of the geometric mean of the spawning stock biomass (SSB) index of what was considered a productive time period. The time period varies for each SFA. Shrimp Fishing Area 7 is assessed and managed through the Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) and subsequently follows the PA prescribed by that group (NAFO 2004); B_lim is 15% of the maximum observed SSB index and no directed fishing is suggested once the stock falls below that level.

Following rapid declines of Northern Shrimp biomass in SFA 6 along with increasing biomass of Atlantic Cod (one of the major predators of Northern Shrimp), concerns were raised about the appropriateness of these reference points, and if they should be updated given changing ecosystem conditions. The reference points were re-evaluated in 2017 through a Regional Science Response peer review process (DFO 2017), where the conclusion was that there was some evidence that environmental factors affecting shrimp productivity may have changed since 2009; however, in the absence of a predictive population model for this species that incorporated ecosystem factors, it was concluded that there was not sufficient evidence to change the reference points.

DFO Science in the Newfoundland and Labrador Region has developed spatially explicit population models for Northern Shrimp in SFAs 4-7 to address this gap and assist with the re-evaluation of shrimp reference points. DFO Resource Management requested this Regional Peer Review process to review the methodology for estimating the population size of Northern Shrimp in SFAs 4-7. No provision of management advice will occur during the framework meeting, rather management advice will be provided through the February 2020 Northern Shrimp Stock Assessment.

Objective

The key objectives of this meeting are to review the proposed population models and define LRPs, consistent with the PA, for Northern Shrimp in SFAs 4-7.

1. Review sources of data used in the models, and the evidence for changes in shrimp productivity during various time periods;
2. Review scientific and statistical assumptions for the two proposed Northern Shrimp models (spatial surplus production and spatial length-structured ecosystem model);
3. Review reference point methodologies and proposed approaches for the identification of reference points for the NL Northern Shrimp stocks, and determine which approaches will be included in the final framework;

Review methods for projecting metrics (i.e.: biomass, predation pressure, etc.) associated with reference points for the NL Northern Shrimp stocks, and determine how these metrics will be incorporated into future stock assessments.

Expected Publications

• Research Document
• Proceedings

Expected Participation

The meeting will be highly technical in nature and the discussions and review will require participants that are familiar with a broad range of quantitative assessment and modeling techniques. Consistent with the participation guidelines for Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) processes, attendance is by invitation only.

To contribute materials and analyses and to assist in the framework review, participation is expected from:

• DFO Science and Resource Management Branches
• Academia and invited non-DFO experts in modelling and statistical analyses
• Other experts as deemed necessary

References

DFO. 2006. A Harvest Strategy Compliant with the Precautionary Approach. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2006/023.

DFO. 2009a. A Fishery Decision-Making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach.

DFO. 2009b. Proceedings of the precautionary approach workshop on Canadian shrimp and prawn stocks and fisheries; November 26-27, 2008. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2008/031.

DFO. 2017. Review of reference points used in the precautionary approach for northern shrimp (Pandalus borealis) in Shrimp Fishing Area 6. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2017/009.

NAFO. 2004. NAFO Precautionary Approach Framework. NAFO FC Doc., No. 04/18, Serial No. N5069.