Terms of Reference

Stock Status Update with application of Management Procedures for BC Pacific Herring: 2019 Status and 2020 Forecast

Science Response Process – Pacific Region

September 30, 2019
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Jaclyn Cleary

Context

Pacific Herring in British Columbia (BC) are managed based on five major stock management areas: Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), Central Coast (CC), Strait of Georgia (SoG), and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), and two minor stock management areas: Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

Annual assessments of Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts began in the late-1980s for all major stocks in British Columbia. Since 2006, the assessment has utilized an integrated statistical catch-age model fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and a fishery-independent abundance index of herring spawn (derived from an egg deposition survey) to estimate spawning biomass and to generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al., 2012, Cleary et al. 2018, DFO 2018). Fisheries Management quota decisions since 2015 have been based on a model parameterization that assumes the spawn index is an absolute index of herring biomass (q=1). Science advice will follow this parameterization for 2019, following comparisons presented DFO 2016 (Table A1) and Cleary et al. 2018 (bridging analysis, Appendix D). The 2019 stock status update will use the same methodology as the assessment conducted in 2017 (Cleary et al. 2018) and 2018 (DFO 2019b), with updated data from the most recently available survey information.

In 2018, management advice for SoG and WCVI herring stocks for 2018/19 fisheries was derived from peer reviewed simulation-tested management procedures (MPs; DFO 2019, DFO 2019b) as part of the Herring Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process. Subsequently, in August 2019, the first MSE cycle for the remaining major stocks was completed using methods outlined in DFO 2019, and resulted in simulation-tested MPs for HG, PRD, and CC. As such, science advice and management procedures presented in this Science Response for all five major Pacific herring stocks for 2019/20 fisheries reflect updated advice from the MSE process.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested that DFO Science Branch provide 2019 stock status updates for Pacific Herring and harvest advice for 2020 derived from simulation-tested management procedures. The assessment and advice arising from this CSAS Science Response (SR) process will be used to support the development of the 2019/2020 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP).

Objective

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, a CSAS Science Response will be developed to:

1. Present updated stock and fishery status to June 2019.
2. Present trends in estimated biomass, depletion, and recruitment for the five major stocks and assess stock status relative to reference points.
3. Summarize the spatial distribution of survey spawn biomass and proportions over years for each major stock area (e.g., by statistical area).
4. For the minor stock areas, present stock status updates using available spawn survey data and biological samples.
5. Provide harvest advice for 2019/2020 for the five major stock areas.

Expected publication

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO Science and Fisheries Management
• First Nations
• Fishing Industry
• Non-government Organizations

References

Cox, S.P., Benson, A.J., Cleary, J.S, and Taylor, N.G. 2019. Candidate Limit Reference Points as a Basis for Choosing Among Alternative Harvest Control Rules for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. In press.
DFO 2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.
DFO 2018. Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2017 Status and 2018 Forecast.  DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2018/002.
DFO 2018b. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/030.
DFO. 2019. Evaluation of Management Procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in the Strait of Georgia and the West Coast of Vancouver Island Management Areas of British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/001.
DFO. 2019b. Status of Pacifc Herring (Clupea pallasii) in 2018 and forecast for 2019. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2019/001.
Kronlund, A.R., Forrest, R.E., Cleary, J.S., and Grinnell, M.H. 2018. The selection and role of limit reference points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia, Canada. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/009. ix + 125p.
Martell, S.J., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.