Terms of Reference

3Ps Cod Assessment Framework

Regional Peer Review – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

October 8 – 10, 2019
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: Karen Dwyer

Context

The assessment framework meeting will focus on methodology for estimating the population size and other stock status indicators of cod in Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization Subdivision 3Ps.

The most recent (2018) stock assessment for 3Ps cod utilized a survey-based assessment model to determine stock status. This method relies only on a single index of stock abundance (from Fisheries and Oceans Canada’s multi-species survey), and generates relative estimates of total mortality rates (Z) and stock size. Caveats to this approach include an inability to incorporate commercial catch or other data sources, and an inability to provide estimates of fishing mortality or catch-based management advice. An assessment framework meeting will review and consider candidate models of population dynamics for 3Ps cod, specifically those that can incorporate multiple data sources (including commercial catch). The data sources available for modeling the 3Ps cod population were determined previously at a data review meeting held in May 2019.

Objective

Evaluate potential assessment models for possible use as the basis for providing science advice for 3Ps cod. If a model is found to be appropriate for the assessment of 3Ps cod it would be used subsequently during the stock assessment from November 19-22, 2019. Specifically, the framework meeting will address the following:

• Evaluate potential assessment models to determine if they provide a sufficient framework for providing scientific advice on the impact of exploitation on 3Ps cod, in particular estimating the stock size (biomass and abundance), recruitment, fishing mortality, and potentially natural mortality of the population.
• Provide direction on projection methods for future catch options.
• Provide direction for an approach to estimating reference points for this stock.
• Discuss whether the assessment methodology has the potential to support quantitative evaluation of harvest control rules.
• Identify uncertainties and knowledge gaps.
• Identify priority short and medium-term research recommendations to improve data sources, assessment model formulation and estimation, and projection methods.

Expected Publications

• Proceedings
• Research documents

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries Management Branches)
• French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries and Land Resources
• Industry
• Academia
• Non-Governmental Organizations
• Other invited experts

References

DFO. 2019. Stock Assessment of NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Cod. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/009.