Terms of Reference

Assessment of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Atlantic Cod

Regional Peer Review – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

November 19-22, 2019
St. John's, NL

Chairperson: Karen Dwyer
Co-Chairperson: Krista Baker

Context

The status of Northwest Atlantic Fisheries Organization (NAFO) Subdivision 3Ps Cod was last assessed in October 2018 (DFO 2019). The main objectives were to evaluate the status of the stock and to provide scientific advice concerning conservation outcomes related to various fishery management options.
An Assessment Framework was conducted for 3Ps Cod in October 2019 to peer-review multiple models of population dynamics.
The current assessment is requested by the Fisheries Management Branch to provide the Minister with detailed advice on the status of the stock in order to inform management decisions for the 2020-21 fishing season.

Objectives

• Provide an oceanographic and environmental overview for the stock area. If possible, this information should be integrated into the advice.
• Determine whether the population model used to provide advice for 3Ps cod includes a time-varying estimate of natural mortality.
• Determine an appropriate Limit Reference Point (LRP) for 3Ps Cod.
• Assess and report on the current status of the 3Ps cod stock. In particular, assess current spawning stock biomass (SSB) relative to baseline conservation thresholds (LRP), total biomass, exploitation rate, fishing and natural mortality, and biological characteristics (including age composition, size at age, age at maturity, and distribution). To the extent possible, describe these variables in relation to historic observations.
• Analyze recent year class strength relative to previous observations, as it relates to long‑term growth and sustainability of the stock. To the extent possible, provide information on the strengths of year-classes expected to enter the exploitable population in the next 1‑3 years.
• Provide annual projections to 2022 of SSB relative to the LRP (with 95% CIs), assuming total removals are 1.0 times, ±15%, and ± 30% of the 2018-19 value, and associated risk analyses.
• Identify the level of removals that provide a positive trajectory of SSB over the short to medium-term (3-5 years) with a 0.50, 0.75, and 0.95 probability.
• Highlight major sources of uncertainty in the assessment.
• Report on results of tagging and the distribution of this stock in other areas (e.g., 3L/3Pn).

Expected Publications

• Science Advisory Report
• Proceedings
• Research Document(s)

Expected Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) (Science and Fisheries Management Branches)
• French Research Institute for Exploitation of the Sea (IFREMER)
• Provincial Department of Fisheries and Land Resources
• Fishing Industry
• Academia
• Indigenous groups
• Non-government organizations

References

DFO. 2019. Stock Assessment of NAFO Subdivision 3Ps Cod. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/009.