Terms of Reference

Stock Status Update with application of Management Procedures for BC Pacific Herring: 2020 Status and 2021 Forecast

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

September 30, 2020
Virtual meeting

Chairperson: Jaclyn Cleary

Context

Pacific Herring in British Columbia (BC) are managed by Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) based on five major stock management areas: Haida Gwaii (HG), Prince Rupert District (PRD), Central Coast (CC), Strait of Georgia (SoG), and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), and two minor stock management areas: Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

Annual assessments of Pacific Herring abundance and forecasts began in the late-1980s for all major stocks in British Columbia. Since 2006, the assessment has utilized an integrated statistical catch-age model fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and a fishery-independent abundance index of herring spawn (derived from an egg deposition survey) to estimate spawning biomass and to generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al., 2012, Cleary et al. 2019, DFO 2018). Fisheries Management quota decisions since 2015 have been based on a model parameterization that assumes the spawn index is an absolute index of herring biomass (q=1). Science advice will follow this parameterization for 2020, following comparisons presented in DFO 2016 (Table A1) and Cleary et al. 2019 (bridging analysis, Appendix D). The 2020 stock status update will use the same methodology as the assessment conducted in 2017 (Cleary et al. 2019), 2018 (DFO 2019b), and 2019 (DFO 2020), with the following data updates: 2020 survey index (dive protocol) for SOG, WCVI, CC; 2020 survey index (surface protocol) for HG, PRD, Area 2W, Area 27; 2020 average weights-at-age and numbers-at-age where available. The change to surface survey protocol for HG and PRD reflects a necessary modification for these areas due to COVID-19.

Management advice for SoG and WCVI herring stocks for the 2018/19 fisheries was derived from peer reviewed simulation-tested management procedures (MPs; DFO 2019, DFO 2019b) as part of the Herring Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process. Subsequently, the first MSE cycle for the remaining major stocks was completed using methods outlined in DFO 2019, and resulted in simulation-tested MPs for HG, PRD, and CC.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries Management has requested that DFO Science Branch provide 2020 stock status updates for Pacific Herring and harvest advice for 2021 derived from simulation-tested management procedures for all five major Pacific Herring stocks. This update follows the methods of DFO 2019, with the addition of peer-reviewed stock and fishery data from 2018 and 2019. The assessment and advice arising from this Canadian Science Advisory Secretariat (CSAS) Science Response (SR) process will be used to support the development of the 2020/2021 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP).

Objectives

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, a CSAS Science Response will be developed to:

1. Present updated stock and fishery status to June 2020.
2. Present trends in estimated biomass, depletion, and recruitment for the five major stocks and assess stock status relative to reference points.
3. Summarize the spatial distribution of survey spawn biomass and proportions over years for each major stock area (e.g., by statistical area).
4. For the minor stock areas, present stock status updates using available spawn survey data and biological samples.
5. Provide harvest advice for 2020/2021 for the five major stock areas.

Expected Publications

• Science Response

Expected Participation

• DFO Science and Fisheries Management
• First Nations
• Commercial and Recreational Fishing Industries
• Non-government Organizations
• Province of BC

References Cited and Additional Information

Cleary, J.S., Hawkshaw, S., Grinnell, M.H., and Grandin, C. 2019. Status of B.C. Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in 2017 and forecasts for 2018. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/028. v + 282 p.

Cox, S.P., Benson, A.J., Cleary, J.S, and Taylor, N.G. 2019. Candidate Limit Reference Points as a Basis for Choosing Among Alternative Harvest Control Rules for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc.2019/050.

DFO 2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.

DFO 2018. Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2017 Status and 2018 Forecast.  DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2018/002.

DFO 2018b. The Selection and Role of Limit Reference Points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/030.

DFO. 2019. Evaluation of Management Procedures for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in the Strait of Georgia and the West Coast of Vancouver Island Management Areas of British Columbia. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2019/001.

DFO. 2019b. Status of Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in 2018 and forecast for 2019. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2019/001.

DFO. 2020. Stock status update with application of management procedures for Pacifc Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia: Status in 2019 and forecast for 2020. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2020/004.

Kronlund, A.R., Forrest, R.E., Cleary, J.S., and Grinnell, M.H. 2018. The selection and role of limit reference points for Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) in British Columbia, Canada. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2018/009. ix + 125p.

Martell, S.J., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.