Terms of Reference

Review of Bayesian Population Model for Northwest Atlantic Harp Seal

National Peer Review – National Capital Region

October 24-28, 2022
Winnipeg, MB and Virtual Meeting

Chairperson: Véronique Lesage

Context

The harp seal is the most abundant pinniped in the north Atlantic in spite of being harvested commercially continuously since the late 1700s. Northwest Atlantic harp seal population summers in the eastern Canadian Arctic and West Greenland and overwinters off northeastern Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence where it gives birth to its pups on pack ice between late February and mid-March.

For the past 50 years, the population dynamics, and total allowable catch (TAC), have been estimated using variations of an age-structured deterministic demographic model. This model is fitted to independent field estimates of pup production and age specific reproductive rates taking into account annual removals from the population. More recently it has also included environmental conditions that are believed to influence the dynamics of the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population.

In a recent review of the status of the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population, model fit to aerial survey estimates of pup production and annual reproductive rates was poor compared to previous assessments indicating underlying problems relating to model assumptions and/ or structure.

Objectives

The specific objective of this meeting is to provide scientific peer review of a new Bayesian modelling approach to assessment of the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population.

Expected Publications

• Research Document

Expected Participation

• DFO (Ecosystems and Oceans Science)
• Academia
• Other invited experts