Atlantic Fisheries Research Document 1996/027

Assessment of 4VsW cod in 1995 with consideration of ecological indicators of stock status

By L.P. Fanning; R.K. Mohn; W.J. MacEachern

Abstract

There was no directed fishery for 4VsW cod in 1994 due to the continuing moratorium on fishing for this stock. The bycatch landings from other fisheries in the area amounted to 368t scattered throughout the year, split evenly between 4Vs and 4W and between fixed and mobile gear sectors. The foreign catch was limited to 2 t. Sampling of the catch was difficult because of the scattered, small landings and only 5 commercial samples were available for the year.

The sequential population analysis was calibrated using the same model as in recent years with two research vessel indices (July and March). The recent surveys have been the lowest on record and the population analysis reflects this. In 1994, when only a small bycatch was permitted, fishing mortality was estimated to be 0.02. The closure of the fishery in 1993, extended through 1994, has resulted in the only significant reduction in fishing mortality since the extension of jurisdiction in 1977.

Several biological and ecological indicators were examined in evaluating the status of this stock. These included trends in size at age and condition, distribution of spawning components and environmental predictors of recruitment, grey seal predation, and ecological and spatial correlations with yellowtail flounder and capelin. A synthesis of these indicators suggests that there has been a significant ecological shift since about 1982 which may be driven by, or exacerbated by, colder water temperatures, intense fishing, and increasing seal predation.

In the short term there are no reasonable prospects for a fishery on this stock and even in the longer term, until a number of yearclasses are seen to be of near average or larger size and there is evidence of continued reproductive success, this stock cannot safely sustain a directed fishery. It will require at least 8 years for these conditions to be satisfied after the first successful recruitment.

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