Atlantic Fisheries Research Document 1996/040
Status of Atlantic salmon stocks of the Saint John River and southwest New Brunswick, 1995
By T.L. Marshall; R. Jones
Abstract
Total 1SW (5,079) returns destined for above Mactaquac in 1995 increased over those in 1993 and 1994 but were the third-lowest since 1978. MSW returns (2,355) were the lowest of a 26-year record but were comparable with 1994. The proportion of the run identifiable as hatchery fish increased to 57% of 1SW and 27% of MSW returns; return rates for hatchery smolts improved but were among the lowest on record. Spawners numbered 4,839 1SW fish and 1,887 MSW salmon, 151% and 43% of the respective targets. Egg deposition (70% from wild fish) was 45% of requirement; the target has not been met since 1985.
Counts at the Nashwaak fence contributed to an estimated return and spawning escapement of 940 1SW and 436 MSW salmon, up from 1994. Estimated spawners were 61% and 28% of respective 1SW and MSW targets. Egg depositions increased to 37% form 31% in 1994.
External and scale characteristics of 555 1SW and 194 MSW salmon captured in the Magaguadavic River trap indicated that only 49 1SW and 30 MSW salmon were of wild origin - the lowest of an 8-year record. The effective female escapement was estimated at 31 1SW and 28 MSW fish because many aquaculture fish were removed and most of the remainder were determined to be immature. Potential egg deposition was 22% of target; 52% of the eggs were of aquaculture-origin fish.
Sixty salmon ascended the St. Croix River at Milltown - the lowest of a 13-year record. Only 7 1SW and 14 MSW fish were of wild origin. Egg deposition was 2% of requirement.
1SW returns destined for Mactaquac in 1996 should number 5,800 to 6,900 fish, thereby exceeding the 3,200 1SW spawning requirements. More than half the returns will be of hatchery origin - either smolts released directly form Mactaquac or age-0+ fish released upriver of Mactaquac in 1992, and 1993.
MSW returns destined for Mactaquac in 1996 could number 3,800 to 4,300, i.e., 85 to nearly 100% of the 4,400 target spawning requirements for MSW fish above Mactaquac. The forecast is dependent on an increase, from recent smolt classes, in the proportion of wild MSW returns from the 1994 smolt class and an increasing contribution by fish of hatchery origin.
Returns to the Nashwaak River in 1995 should at least equal those of 1995; hatchery stocking has not, in the last few years, been as significant an activity in any of the areas below Mactaquac as it has been above. Trends in the returns of wild fish to both the Magaguadavic and St. Croix rivers have been downward; there is no evidence to suggest that wild fish will equal or exceed the few dozen fish that returned in 1995.
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