Atlantic Fisheries Research Document 1996/051
Some examples of probabilistic catch projections using ADAPT output
By A. Sinclair; S. Gavaris
Abstract
An approach for communicating the uncertainty of short term catch projections to decision makers is described. Case studies for Georges Bank haddock and southern Golf of St. Lawrence cod were used to illustrate the method. It was assumed that the management strategy was to fish at a fixed fishing mortality of F 0.1 and TAC's were used as the main management tactic. The uncertainties about two state variables, F in the projection year and the surviving biomass, were calculated in relation to total catch in the projection year. The uncertainty was expressed as the probability that a given TAC would result in an F in excess of the target and of the surviving adult biomass being less that a given level. These calculations use standard output from analytical stock assessment.
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