Atlantic Fisheries Research Document 1996/101

Assessment of cod in Division 4X in 1996

By D.S. Clark; L.L. Brown

Abstract

Landings of cod from Division 4X have fluctuated since 1948 between 35,500t and the 1995 value of 8,800t. The quota for 1996 was increased to 11,000t, 4,100t of which was landed by the end of June. Landings in 1995 and the first half of 1996 were dominated by the 1992 year class. The summer survey results indicate that abundance of 4X cod continued to increase in 1996, and suggest that the 1992 year class is particularly strong. Abundance at ages greater than 6, however, remains low, and the 1993 year-class (age 3) appears to be weak. The initial indications are that the 1994 year-class is also below average.

The adaptive framework was used to calibrate the sequential population analysis with the research survey results. The analysis was conducted using catch at age data for half-year intervals, including the first half of 1996. Beginning of year biomass for ages 3 and older continued to increase in 1996 from the historic low recorded in 1994, and will also increase for the beginning of 1997. The 1992 year-class is estimated to be the second strongest during the period examined (1977-1994). Fishing mortality in 1995 is the lowest in the time series, approaching F_0.1.

The projected F_0.1 yield for 1997 is 10,200t. The beginning of year 1997 biomass for ages 3 and older should reach 58,000t; about the middle of the range of 30,000t to 70,000t that has been observed since 1980. Although the biomass is expected to increase, the age range which is sustaining the fishery remains quite restricted. An increase in the abundance of older age classes is required to reduce the dependency of this fishery on recruitment.

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