Research Document 1997/110
Assessment of cod in Division 4X in 1997
By D.S. Clark
Abstract
Landings of cod from Division 4X have fluctuated since 1948 between 35,500t and the 1995 value of 8,800t. The quota for 1997 was increased to 13,000t, 3,800t of which was landed by the end of June. Landings in 1996 and the first half of 1997 were dominated by the 1992 year class. The summer survey indicates that abundance of 4X cod has declined since 1996, but continues to indicate that the 1992 year class is particularly strong. Abundance at ages greater than 6, however, remains low. The 1993 and 94 year-classes (ages 3 and 4) appear to be weak, and the initial indications are that the 1995 year-class is also below average.
The adaptive framework was used to calibrate the sequential population analysis with the research survey results. The analysis was conducted using catch at age data for quarter-year intervals, including the first half of 1997. Beginning of year biomass for ages 3 and older increased annually from the historic low recorded in 1994 up to 1997. Biomass is projected to decline slightly for the beginning of 1998. The 1992 year-class is estimated to be among the strongest during the period examined (1977-1994), however recruitment since then has been poor, and includes the two lowest estimates in the series. Fishing mortality in 1996 is the lowest in the time series, approaching F0.1, however fishing mortality is expected to increase again for 1997.
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