Research Document 1998/57
Area of ice over the Newfoundland Shelf as a variable to reduce the variance of inseason forecasts of Atlantic salmon at Morgan Falls, LaHave River
By C.J. Harvie and P.G. Amiro
Abstract
This document examines the potential for mean monthly ice areas over the northern Newfoundland and southern Labrador shelves to explain a significant portion of the variation in run timing of Atlantic salmon counted at Morgan Falls, LaHave River. An end of season population estimate, based on cumulative counts to a date, can be made as the season progresses using a linear regression model. An estimate can be made as early as July 1 while maintaining an assumed minimum level of precision of 25% coefficient of variation. Inclusion of the mean March ice area in the model allows an end of season population estimate to be made as early as June 15, with a 20% loss of precision over the July 1 estimate. Inclusion of the mean May ice area improved the proportion of variation explained by the regression from R²adj = 0.82 to R²adj = 0.88 and increased the precision by 12% using cumulative counts to July 6.
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