Research Document - 1999/023

Assessment of Cod in the Southern Gulf of St. Lawrence, March 1999.

By G. Chouinard, A. Sinclair, L. Currie, G. Poirier, and D. Swain

Abstract

The directed fishery for cod in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence has been closed since September 1993. In 1998, it remained closed but an allocation of 3,000 t was established for by-catch in other fisheries, sentinel surveys, recreational catch and an index fishery designed to provide information on stock status. Total landings amounted to 2588 t. Population abundance in the September survey remained unchanged. For the first time, sentinel survey indices could be used in the age-structured analysis. An increase in natural mortality (M) in the mid-1980s, reported in the previous assessment, was re-examined but the new analyses supported the view that M had indeed increased around that time. The assessment indicates that population biomass has remained low, close to the lowest seen since 1950. Spawning stock biomass is estimated to be about 89,000 t. Recruitment has been well below the historical average over the last decade but the 1995 and 1996 year-classes are estimated to be more abundant than the ones produced in the early 1990s. Exploitation rates in recent years have been low (2-3%) but the low productivity of the stock and high natural mortality have not led to a recovery. Catch projections, assuming continued high natural mortality (0.4); indicate that the spawning stock biomass may increase by about 5-6% if there is no catch in 1999. Spawning biomass at the beginning of 2000 would remain unchanged with a catch of 6,000 t in 1999. If the 1996 year-class is not as large as estimated then there would be little increase in spawning stock biomass at the level of catches seen in recent years (2600 t). Otherwise, a 10% increase in spawning biomass could be expected by 2001.

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