Research Document - 1999/110
In-season forecast model for 1SW salmon returning to the Saint John River, New Brunswick in 1999.
By C.J. Harvie and T.L. Marshall
Abstract
Inseason forecasts of wild and hatchery 1SW Atlantic salmon returning to Mactaquac Dam on the Saint John River, New Brunswick, have been estimated using simple linear regression models. The response variable has been cumulative proportion of the returns to date and, for wild 1SW salmon, the predictor variable has been average daily mean discharge. Since 1995, discharge has become a less significant predictor in the wild 1SW model and the seasonal distribution of hatchery 1SW arrival has changed, frequently resulting in overestimation of returns. A new model, regressing end-of-season returns on returns-to-date, for both wild and hatchery components at three dates, was evaluated for forecast accuracy in a retrospective examination and found to more accurately forecast end-of-season returns.
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