Research Document - 1999/119

An Assessment and Risk Projections of the West Coast of Newfoundland (NAFO division 4R) Herring Stocks (1965 to 2000)

By McQuinn, I.H., M. Hammill and L. Lefebvre

Abstract

Both spring- and autumn-spawning herring are found along the west coast of Newfoundland (4R). The 1999 assessment indicates that the status of the spring-spawning stock is in danger of collapse. The autumn spawning stock is declining gradually while the exploitation rate has been slowly increasing. Apart from the 1990 year-class, recruitment to the spring-spawning stock has been below average (1965-1996) since the 1987 year-class. The spring-spawner spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has declined to an historical low of 14,000 t in 1999. If the spring-spawner F_0.1 catch of 2,300 t is caught in 1999, the risk that the SSB would not increase by even 20% by the year 2000 would be about 40%, and the minimum SSB target of 38,000 cannot be achieved even without fishing.

Recruitment to the autumn-spawning stock has been above average (1973-1996) since the large 1979 year-class, which has kept this stock at an intermediate level. The autumn-spawner SSB has been declining slowly, from 80,000 t in 1984 to 42,000 t in 1998. An autumn-spawner F_0.1 yield for 1999 would be approximately 9,000 t and would result in a 90% risk that the SSB will decrease by 10%, although there is a 70% probability that the SSB will not decline below 35,000 t. It is essential that fishing effort be reduced and be shifted to the north as much as possible to avoid directed fishing on the spring-spawning stock.

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