Research Document - 2002/060
Long-term projections in a Precautionary Approach context for the herring (Clupea harengus harengus) of the West Coast of Newfoundland (NAFO Division 4R).
By Grégoire, F., and Rivard, D.
Abstract
In the context of the Precautionary Approach, simulations were conducted to determine how many years it would take for spring-spawning herring (Clupea harengus harengus) of Newfoundland's west coast to reach the Blim reference level. Three harvesting strategy models were developed: the General model, the NAFO (North Atlantic Fisheries Organization) model and the ICES (International Council for the Exploration of the Sea) model. Regardless of the strategy adopted, the findings indicate that the stock's spawning biomass would increase rapidly after only a few years and then stabilize. The ICES model projected the highest landings in the long term. However, the NAFO model was the most conservative approach in terms of spawning biomass. The findings also show that these three approaches would ensure a higher biomass in the long term than the F0.1 reference level, which DFO has used until now to determine harvesting level targets for herring.
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