Research Document - 2003/015

Assessment of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence cod stock, February 2003

By Chouinard, G.A., Swain, D.P., Currie, L., Poirier, G.A., Rondeau, A., Benoit, H., Hurlbut, T. and Daigle, D.

Abstract

The directed cod fishery on the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence (NAFO 4T-Vn (November-April)) cod stock was closed in September 1993. In 1999, a limited commercial fishery for cod was opened with a total allowable catch (TAC) of 6,000 t. The TAC has remained unchanged since 1999. Total landings in 2002 amounted to 5,127 t. The fishery took place primarily between June and November. Although fish harvesters remain marginally optimistic about stock status, a larger proportion of those interviewed suggested that the stock is declining. Two large sets in the annual research vessel survey caused an increase in this abundance index; however,  excluding these two sets would result in a significant decline in the index from already low levels. Sentinel survey indices do not show significant trends since their inception except for the gillnet index which has shown a continuous decline. Natural mortality (M) appears to remain high. A value of 0.4 for M for the period since 1986 was again used in this assessment. All sets in the 2002 research survey were included in the assessment however the impact of excluding the two large sets were examined. The trends from both analyses are consistent and indicate that population biomass remains low, similar to the mid-1970s, and is near the lowest observed in the period starting in 1950. Abundance and biomass are in decline over the last few years. The spawning stock biomass in 2003 is estimated at 72,000 t. Recruitment has been well below the historical average over the last decade and the estimate of the 1999 and 2000 year-classes are amongst the lowest on record. Assuming continued high M and given the lower recruitment of recent years, catch projections indicate that spawning stock biomass will decline in 2003 even with no fishing. Given the low abundance of incoming year-classes, spawning stock biomass is likely to decline over the next 2-3 years. Consequently, rebuilding of spawning biomass over the next few years is unlikely. At the beginning of 2003, spawning stock biomass is estimated to be below the conservation limit reference point for this stock.

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