Research Document - 2003/118
Example application of candidate precautionary limit reference points to the 3Ps cod stock
By Shelton, P. A.
Abstract
The cod stock off southern Newfoundland (3Ps) is thought to be within safe biological limits and supports the only significant commercial fishery (>10,000t) on cod in Atlantic Canada. Currently there are no precautionary approach spawner biomass limit reference points in place. This study provides example application of candidate limit reference points to population estimates derived from the 2002 assessment, extended back to 1959. The candidates include five approaches/variants which were applied by DFO to three severely depleted cod stocks in February 2003 and incorporated in scientific advice which was used as a basis for the closure of the directed fisheries on these stocks. In addition, two new approaches based on non-parametric estimates of the probability of poor recruitment for a range of spawner biomass values and an approach in use in ICES called segmented regression are applied. While it is possible to develop a number of ways of deriving limit reference points, it is essential that both the biological and statistical properties be thoroughly evaluated through a process which includes simulation testing.
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