Research Document - 2003/119
Abundance of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar) in the Big Salmon River, New Brunswick,
from 1951 to 2002
By Gibson, A.J.F., Jones, R.A., Amiro, P.G.,
Flanagan, J.J.
Abstract
Atlantic salmon of the Big Salmon River, New Brunswick, are part of a larger population assemblage, known as “inner Bay of Fundy Atlantic salmon”, that is currently listed as endangered by COSEWIC. The Big Salmon River population has been impacted by human activities for over 150 years and has been the focus of recovery efforts intermittently for more than 70 years. We compile data from the Big Salmon River stock collected since 1951 and use these data to assess changes in population size since that time. We used maximum likelihood to model the catch-effort, juvenile electrofishing, adult fence, stream-side and dive counts, and redd count data, to obtain estimates of the annual escapements and returns during this time period. While none of the four models presented are entirely satisfactory, all indicate a spawning run size in the range of 1,000 to 4,000 salmon during the 1960's and early 1970's, and a spawning run size of less than 100 fish since 1996. Estimates of the percent decline from the early 1990's ranged between 63% and 80%, and between 92% and 97% over the last 30 years.
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