Research Document - 2005/026

Assessment of Pacific Cod in Hecate Strait (5CD) and Queen Charlotte Sound (5AB), January, 2005

By Sinclair, A.F., Starr, P.J.

Abstract

The available commercial fishery and research survey data for Pacific cod stocks in Hecate Strait (5CD) and Queen Charlotte Sound (5AB) were assembled and reviewed for this stock assessment paper. Results from a 3-year survey designed specifically to monitor Pacific cod abundance in Hecate Strait during a period of stock recovery were included. A delay-difference stock production model was used to synthesize these data. There are clear indications that the Hecate Strait population has increased in abundance and biomass since an historic low in 2001. The reduction in TAC for this stock which was introduced in the 2001/02 fishing year resulted in a decrease in exploitation rate which has contributed to the increase in stock size. However, the population has not yet recovered to the long term average biomass and continued increases may be desirable. A candidate stock biomass limit reference point is proposed based on the previous minimum biomass from which the stock had recovered. This was the stock biomass in 1971. Catch forecasts were calculated for a wide range of TAC in 2005/06. The results are presented as probabilities of specific performance measures being met or exceeded. Attention is drawn to the probability of biomass increase and the probability of the biomass being greater than the biomass in 1971. We were unable to produce an analytical assessment of the Queen Charlotte Sound population. Several reasons for this are discussed and recommendations are made for future research to address this issue.

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