Research Document - 2008/007
Recovery potential assessment for lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) in Canadian designatable units
By L.A. Vélez-Espino and M.A. Koops
Abstract
Following a recommendation from the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC), recovery potential assessment (RPA) is required to inform the listing decision under the Species at Risk Act (SARA). COSEWIC’s assessment divided the lake sturgeon (Acipenser fulvescens) geographic distribution into eight designatable units (DUs), recommending conservation statuses of Special Concern (DU6 and DU7), Threatened (DU8), and Endangered (DU1 to DU5). Here we present modelling in support of an RPA using stage-structured matrix models to quantitatively assess allowable harm, recovery efforts, probabilities of recovery and recovery timeframes. From this assessment, we conclude that lake sturgeon populations are most sensitive to harm on adult survival. However, maximum proportional increases in population growth rates can be achieved by focusing recovery efforts on YOY and juvenile survival. Finally, based on a recovery target of 1188 spawning females per year and assuming that current abundances are 10% of this target, the time to 95% probability of recovery range from 20 years to over 100 years (1-3 generations), depending on the recovery actions implemented.
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