Research Document - 2009/089
Harvest advice for Eastern Hudson Bay belugas
By M.O. Hammill and M.C.S. Kingsley
Abstract
The number of Eastern Hudson Bay (EHB) animals in the summer harvest in the Hudson Strait area remains low. For this assessment it was assumed that all animals killed in EHB, 10% of animals killed in spring and summer in Hudson Strait, 20% of animals killed in fall in Hudson Strait and Ungava Bay are EHB beluga.
A population model incorporating removals was fitted to aerial survey estimates of abundance using Bayesian methods estimated the 1985 population at 4, 200 animals (se=1,500; 95% Credibility Interval 2,200-7,700). The model estimated that the population had declined to 3,300 in 2009 (se=1,325; 95% Credibility Interval 1,600-6,500). Nevertheless, at current harvest levels, the population has probably been stable or has increased slightly the last few years. The model estimated struck and loss at 63% (se=31).
The analyses indicated that removing 15 EHB animals per year would have a moderate level of risk (0.3 to 0.35) of the population declining depending on level of the total harvests reported for 2009. The lower risk would be associated with a reported 2009 catch of 38 EHB animals, whereas the slightly higher risk would result if the 2009 harvest were taken. Removing 55 animals would have a higher probability of causing a decline in the population of 0.5 to 0.55 in 2010, again depending on the final 2009 harvest.
The total number of animals that can be harvested without causing a decline in the EHB beluga whale population will depend on how catches are distributed between Eastern Hudson Bay, Ungava Bay and Hudson Strait during spring/summer and catches in Hudson Strait during fall.
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