Research Document - 2013/113
Methods and models used in the 2012 assessment of the snow crab (Chionoecetes opilio), stock in the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence
By E. Wade, M. Moriyasu, and M. Hébert
Abstract
This document describes the methods and procedures specific to the 2012 assessment of the snow crab stock of the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence. Changes to methodologies recommended during the framework snow crab assessment methodologies in 2005 and 2011 were adopted. The abundances in number or weight of snow crab stages are estimated using a geostatistics method called kriging with external drift. Estimates are made for the entire southern Gulf snow crab biological unit and for each of the four snow crab fishing areas. An inference and forecast Bayesian model is used to predict the incoming recruitment of commercial-sized adult male crab which will be available for the next year's fishery. The biomass estimates and the forecast model are used for the risk analysis of catch options for the snow crab fishery for the southern Gulf of St. Lawrence overall. An independent analysis of the 2012 data and kriging estimates are provided as an appendix to the document.
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