Science Advisory Report  2015/001

Stock Assessment of NAFO subdivision 3Ps cod

Summary

• Reported combined landings by Canada and France have been below the TAC since the 2009/10 season. During the 2013/14 season, less than half (47%) of the 11,500 t TAC was landed.
• Consistent with recent assessments, a cohort model (SURBA) based on the spring DFO survey was used to infer overall stock trends.
• Some of the other sources of information not included in the assessment model (i.e. Sentinel, log book data) show trends that differ from the SURBA results, and these differences are not fully understood. The DFO survey is considered the most appropriate index of stock status because it covers most of the stock area.
• The stock is currently in the cautious zone as defined by the DFO Precautionary Approach (PA) Framework. The spawning stock biomass (SSB) has increased since 2009 and is currently estimated to be 60 percent above the limit reference point (LRP; BRecovery = SSB1994). The probability of being below the LRP in 2014 is very low (~0.01).
• Estimated total mortality over 2011-13 averaged 0.53 (41% annual mortality), which is relatively high considering that less than half of the TAC was taken annually over this time period.
• Recruitment has improved over the last decade with most cohorts at or above the time-series (1983-2013) average. In particular, the 2006 cohort is strong, and preliminary indications are that the 2011 and 2012 cohorts are also strong.
• Projection of the stock to 2015 was conducted assuming mortality rates will be within ±20% of current values (2011-13 average). Projected SSB remains stable or increases and remains within the cautious zone.

This Science Advisory Report is from the October 14-16, 2014 3Ps Cod Stock Assessment. Additional publications from this meeting will be posted on the Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science Advisory Schedule as they become available.

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