Terms of Reference

Short-Term Stock Prospects for Cod, Crab and Shrimp in the NL Region (Divisions 2J3KL)

Regional Science Response Process – Newfoundland and Labrador Region

August 20-21 and 28, 2014
St. John’s, NL

Chairperson: D. Power

Context

Bottom water temperatures off the East Coast of Newfoundland and Labrador have been increasing since the mid-1990’s and are expected to remain high or continue to increase (more gradually) for more than a decade (to about 2030, based on the Aquatic Climate Change Adaptation Services Program (ACCASP work). While the return to a warm regime should be favourable for cod there are a multitude of other factors (eg. abundance of a primary prey such as capelin) affecting stock growth and productivity.  For Snow Crab, warm conditions are associated with low survival soon after settlement and weak subsequent recruitment. Effects of warming are most unclear for Northern Shrimp because recruitment dynamics are believed to be related to the match/mismatch of hatching with the spring algal bloom, which likely involves multiple factors interacting with temperature.

Given current environmental predictions and what has been studied in terms of associations with these resources, Fisheries and Aquaculture Management Branch has asked Science Branch to provide an overview of the prospects of these stocks over the next 3-5 years.

Objectives

1. Report on the confidence of the environmental modelling from ACCASP that supports the expectations that bottom water temperatures are to remain high or continue to increase over the next decade, but more particularly, over the next 3-5 years.
2. Report on other key environmental attributes (eg. algal blooms) considered to be important in cod-crab-shrimp dynamics.
3. Review trends in capelin and other important prey items.
4. Review scenarios for possible biomass trends to 2019 in key resources in the NL Region - Divisions 2J3KL - (specifically crab, shrimp and cod), to support economic analysis and discussions with industry in various consultation processes. Scenarios should be considered in terms of Optimistic, Pessimistic and Likely outcomes for these stocks under a warming environment regime. New analyses will not be undertaken, rather, the meeting will seek a consensus view of these scenarios based on the most recent stock assessments and information previously peer reviewed.

A draft document illustrating scenarios will be provided as a template for the review.

Expected Publication

• Science Response

Participation

• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Science
• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Fisheries and Aquaculture Management
• Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Policy and Economics