Terms of Reference

Stock Assessment and Management Advice for BC Pacific Herring: 2014 Status and 2015 Forecast

Regional Peer Review – Pacific Region

September 3-4, 2014
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Sean MacConnachie

Context

Pacific herring is a pelagic species inhabiting inshore and offshore waters of the North Pacific from California to the Beaufort Sea. Herring annually migrate between feeding and spawning areas. Commercial fishing for British Columbia herring stocks is managed based on five major and two minor stock management areas consisting of Haida Gwaii (Area 2E), Prince Rupert District, Central Coast, Strait of Georgia, and West Coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI). The two minor herring stock management areas are Haida Gwaii Area 2W and WCVI Area 27.

The assessment of current Pacific herring abundance and forecasts has been generated annually since the late-1980s, for each of the five major and two minor stocks in British Columbia, utilizing a statistical catch–age-model since 2006. The model is fitted to commercial catch, proportions-at-age and fishery-independent survey data (spawn index) to estimate biomass and recruitment and generate 1-year forecasts of spawning biomass (Martell et al., 2012; DFO 2013).

Fishery-independent survey (spawn index) and biological sampling has been conducted annually since 1951. Recent adjustments in the structure and available funding for these programs have raised concern that these changes could have impacts on the model outputs and the quality of stock assessment advice.

Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) Pacific Fisheries Management Branch has requested that DFO Pacific Science Branch assess the status of B.C. herring stocks in 2014, and provide projections of potential herring abundance in 2015 and the consequences of a range of potential harvests to inform the development of the 2015 Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP).

In addition, Fisheries Management and Science Branch has requested an evaluation of the consequences of reduced fishery-independent surveys (spawn index) and biological sampling to inform future stock assessment program planning.  Reviewing possible approaches to respond to this need, it has been determined that a comprehensive simulation approach to this evaluation would be ideal. However, for this RPR there are only resources and time to prepare a preliminary evaluation.

Objectives

Guided by the DFO Fishery Decision-making Framework Incorporating the Precautionary Approach (DFO 2009) under the Sustainable Fisheries Framework, RPR participants will review the following working paper to provide the basis for discussion and advice on the specific objectives outlined below.

Cleary J. and N. Taylor. Status of B.C. Pacific Herring (Clupea pallasii) stocks in 2014 and forecasts for 2015. CSAP Working Paper 2014-15/ PEL02+PEL04. (final authorship TBC).

1. Present trends in herring biomass, depletion, and recruitment for each major and minor stocks;
2. Assess the current status of Pacific Herring for each of the five major and two minor stocks relative to historical control points (25% B0), including a sensitivity case using pre 2011 methods (i.e. fixed cut-off levels and q=1);
3. Evaluate the consequences (including potential risk of exceeding harvest rates prescribed by the current harvest control rules) of different total allowable catch levels for 2015 against probabilistic metrics to accommodate uncertainty in the advice.  Results will be presented in the form of decision tables.
4. Conduct a preliminary evaluation of the consequences of reduced fishery-independent surveys (spawn index) and biological sampling frequency on the precision of herring biomass, depletion, and recruitment estimates for each of the five major stock areas.  This preliminary evaluation will be based on the following analyses:
   1. Estimating the 2013 Pacific Herring biomass for each of the major stocks relative to 25% B0 with and without the inclusion of the 2013 spawn and biosampling data.
   2. Comparing the probabilistic metrics of different total allowable catch levels produced in 2013 (for 2014) using and excluding 2013 data.
   3. A retrospective analysis for one stock area (Central Coast), leaving out every second year of data for a 10-year period.

Expected publications

• CSAS Proceedings (1)
• CSAS Science Advisory Report (1)
• CSAS Research Document (1)

Participation

• DFO Science Branch
• DFO Fisheries Management Branch
• BC Provincial government representation
• Commercial and recreational fishing interests
• First Nations organizations
• Non-government organizations
• Academia

References Cited and Additional Information

DFO. 2009. A fishery decision-making framework incorporating the Precautionary Approach.

DFO. 2012a. A review of the Pacific herring assessment framework and stock assessment and management advice for Pacific herring 2011 status and 2012 forecasts, September 7-9, 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2011/062.

DFO 2012b. Proceedings on the Regional Peer Review of the Evaluation of Data and Model Assumptions on the Calculation of Management Parameters using the Pacific Herring Assessment Model (ISCAM); June 27 & 28, 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2012/043.

DFO 2013. Regional Advisory Meeting on the review of the Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2012 Status and 2013 Forecasts; September 5 & 6, 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Proceed. Ser. 2013/009.

Martell, S.J., Schweigert, J.F., Haist, V., and Cleary, J.S. 2012. Moving towards the sustainable fisheries framework for Pacific herring: data, models, and alternative assumptions; Stock Assessment and Management Advice for the British Columbia Pacific Herring Stocks: 2011 Assessment and 2012 Forecasts. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/136. xii + 151 p.