Terms of Reference

Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2015

Regional Science Response Process – Pacific Region

January 27-28, 2015
Nanaimo, BC

Chairperson: Sue Grant

Context

Pre-season forecasts of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns are required annually by Fisheries Management to assist fishery planning. The information necessary to support the 2015 forecasts includes data on fish numbers, condition and/or survival (adult returns for each brood year and their juvenile offspring). These data are collected from research programs in both the freshwater (adult spawners, egg stages, juvenile lake rearing environment and downstream migration) and marine ecosystems (Strait of Georgia and coastal North-East Pacific).

In order to provide context for the 2015 forecasts, information will be summarized on the condition and numbers of Fraser River Sockeye Salmon observed at various life-history stages (e.g., adult spawners, egg stages, and juveniles in the freshwater and marine ecosystems). Summaries will be focused on larger stocks from the 2011 brood year, and in particular, those from the Summer Run timing group. Chilko is expected to contribute ~50% to the total returns in 2015, and Quesnel and Stellako, ~7% each. The Late Run, and in particular Late Shuswap (due to large escapements in 2010 that will contribute to five year olds returning in 2015), Weaver, and Birkenhead are expected to contribute ~8% each to the total returns. Review of returns in the previous year (2014) relative to the science advice provided in that year’s supplement (DFO 2014b) will also be conducted, since these fish will contribute to five year old fish returning in 2015. The previous year’s supplement provided additional information in light of the exceptional escapements in 2010 particularly for Shuswap Sockeye stocks (i.e. Scotch, Seymour and Late Shuswap).

Science Branch has requested this information to support and supplement the 2015 pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon. Pre-season abundance forecasts are used for planning fisheries and are a Canadian obligation under the Pacific Salmon Treaty. DFO, the Pacific Salmon Commission, and the Canada-US bilateral Fraser River Panel will be the primary users of this SSR.

Results will be reported via a Science Response (SR) and will serve as background information for subsequent advisory processes on this issue.

Objectives

Data on fish numbers and condition will be summarized for the Fraser River Sockeye Salmon 2011 brood year throughout their life-history. Larger contributors to the 2015 expected returns (particularly Chilko, and to a lesser extent Quesnel, Stellako, Late Shuswap, Weaver, and Birkenhead) will be the focus of the supplemental information.  Additional information on other stocks will be provided as needed to highlight fish numbers or condition. Results will be reported in the Science Response:

Supplement to the pre-season abundance forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon returns in 2015

Specific objectives for this SR process are to summarize information on:

1. Escapement, fish condition, and environmental conditions in 2011;
2. Juvenile abundance and condition in the freshwater environment;
3. Juvenile abundance and condition in the marine environment;
4. Returns of three year old fish in 2013 (jacks and 3sub1 fish);
5. Comparison of the information from the 2010 brood year with previous years’ data, including data from the 2010 cycle line; and,
6. Uncertainty in the information presented.

The results of this SR process will inform the preparation of 2015 return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon following the methods of Grant and MacDonald (2012), MacDonald and Grant (2012), Grant and MacDonald (2011), and Grant et al. (2010).

Expected Publications

• CSAS Science Response

Participation

• DFO (Science, Fisheries Management)

References

DFO. 2014a. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/040.

DFO. 2014b. Supplement to the pre-season return forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye Salmon in 2014. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/041. 57 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye (Oncorhynchus nerka) and Pink (O. gorbuscha) salmon in 2013. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2013/145. vi + 42 p.

MacDonald, B.L. and Grant, S.C.H. 2012. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2012. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2012/011. v + 64 p.

Grant, S.C.H. and MacDonald, B.L. 2011. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye and Pink Salmon in 2011. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2011/134. vi + 48 p.

Grant, S.C.H., Michielsens, C.G.J., Porszt, E.J. and Cass, A. 2010. Pre-season run size forecasts for Fraser River Sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in 2010. Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Res. Doc. 2010/042. vi + 125 p.