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Annual Meeting of the National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC)

National Peer Review - National Capital Region

October 20-23, 2015
Halifax, Nova Scotia

Co-Chairs: Don Bowen and Garry Stenson

Context

The National Marine Mammal Peer Review Committee (NMMPRC) holds an annual meeting to conduct scientific peer-review of marine mammal issues. This meeting provides the opportunity for collaborative review of scientific results by marine mammal experts from Fisheries and Oceans Canada (DFO) and from other (non-DFO) organizations.  Following NMMPRC peer-review and approval, scientific results are used to provide sound scientific advice for the management and conservation of marine mammals in Canada. When time permits, this annual meeting is also an opportunity to review ongoing research projects and provide feedback or guidance to the scientists involved.

Objectives

This year, the papers to be reviewed will include topics pertaining to high Arctic narwhal, beluga and bowhead whale, Hudson Bay/Davis Strait Atlantic walrus, St. Lawrence beluga, harp seal, and human-induced mortality on Atlantic marine mammals (see below for individual topics).

Topics

1.  Rate of human-induced injury and mortality to marine mammals in Atlantic Canada

Context: In a landmark settlement reached in early 2015, the U.S. government agreed to adopt new rules that ensure seafood imported into the United States meets high standards for protecting cetaceans. The long-delayed regulations will require foreign fisheries to meet the same marine mammal protection standards required of U.S. fishermen or be denied import privileges, thus implementing a 40-year-old provision of the Marine Mammal Protection Act.  Since 1972, the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act has prohibited the United States from allowing seafood to enter the country unless it meets U.S. whale and dolphin standards. Under the new settlement, the federal government must make a final decision by August 2016 about how to implement this requirement and end unlawful imports.

Section 101(a)(2) of the MMPA states: “the Secretary of the Treasury shall ban the importation of commercial fish or products from fish which have been caught with commercial fishing technology which results in the incidental kill or incidental serious injury of ocean mammals in excess of United States  standards”.  In order to show that Canada is meeting U.S. requirements, we must evaluate how much serious harm and mortality to cetaceans is due to fisheries interactions.

Objectives: To evaluate

  1. the average rate of human-caused serious injury and mortality to cetaceans for the most recent seven years of data,
  2. how these estimates of mortality compare to the U.S.-calculated Potential Biological Removal (PBR) or allowable harm, and
  3. how can this information be used to monitor success of actions identified in Species at Risk Act (SARA) recovery plans for SARA-listed cetaceans in Canada.

Expected Publications:

2.  Cumberland Sound Beluga (CSB) - population abundance estimate and sustainable harvest level recommendations

Context: In 2004, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) recommended that CSB be designated as “Threatened” under the Species at Risk Act (SARA).  Continued research and monitoring of this beluga population is required to ensure sustainability of the Inuit subsistence harvest. Fisheries Management and its Nunavut co-management partners are developing an Integrated Fisheries Management Plan (IFMP) with the community of Pangnirtung.  An aerial survey of Cumberland Sound beluga was conducted in summer 2014.  Based upon this survey, DFO will provide Science Advice that can be considered by the Nunavut Wildlife Management Board (NWMB) to evaluate the sustainability of the current quota, and the level of Total Allowable Harvest (TAH) and Basic Needs Level (BNL) to be established for this beluga population.

There are two components to this request based on the recommendations contained in DFO (2013a). The first is to estimate abundance of CSB in 2014 based on the aerial survey data. The second is to complete Bayesian population dynamic modelling of the 2009 and 2014 aerial survey results, and if supported by this analysis, provide advice on an updated population abundance estimate and sustainable harvest levels (i.e., total allowable landed catch; TALC) for this population.

Objectives:  To address the first component of the request and provide a population abundance estimate based on the aerial survey of CSB in 2014.

The second component of the request would be addressed in 2016.

Expected Publication:

3.  Evaluation of a portion of the 2013 narwhal photographic survey and potential application for future surveys

Context: Narwhals inhabit Arctic waters year-round and are facing tremendous changes in their environment, ranging from increased human activities (e.g., oil and gas exploration, shipping) to climate change. Narwhal also have widespread economic, social and cultural importance for Inuit, and it is therefore crucial to establish sustainable hunting levels based on accurate and up-to-date abundance estimates for long term sustainability of the stocks/populations. Obtaining these estimates, however, is complicated by the population structure of narwhals, which is separated into several summering aggregations with varying degrees of site fidelity, and by poorly understood migration patterns that bring narwhals seasonally to a number of Nunavut and Greenlandic community hunting regions.

DFO conducted a comprehensive aerial survey of narwhal in key areas of the eastern Canadian Arctic using both visual and photographic methods in August, 2013. Together, the survey covered the Canadian range of summering aggregation areas of the Baffin Bay narwhal population, as well as narwhals in Jones Sound and Smith Sound. Several of these areas had never been surveyed before, some have not been surveyed for decades, and a comprehensive survey of the entire summer distribution of narwhals had never previously been attempted.

In Canada, narwhals are managed on the basis of known summering aggregations or stocks.  Four stocks comprise the Baffin Bay narwhal population (i.e., Somerset Island, Admiralty Inlet, Eclipse Sound, East Baffin Island); and two provisional High Arctic narwhal stocks occur in Jones Sound and Smith Sound. Based on the visual component of the 2013 survey, DFO science has calculated updated abundance and TALC) estimates for these six narwhal stocks.  A subset of the digital photographs taken on the 2013 survey transects were used to complement visual data for some stocks.  However, the size of the entire photographic record, and the resources needed to analyse it, precluded computation of a full photographic abundance estimate at this time.

Objectives: The 2013 High Arctic Cetacean Survey (HACS) resulted in ~244,000 digital photographs taken from three aircraft. Over half of these photographs have been read, including all the areas where visual observers detected marine mammals. However, these results only provide complete coverage of the Somerset Island stock and the fiord component of the East Baffin Island stock.  Reading the remaining images from the 2013 HACS will require considerable resources. Therefore, a stepwise approach is proposed for the evaluation of the entire photographic component of the survey:

  1. Technical comparison of visual and photographic methods

    2. This will involve an initial comparison between the photographic and visual survey abundance estimates obtained only for the Somerset Island stock and the fiord component of the East Baffin Island stock.  The results of this technical comparison will provide new information on an alternative approach to estimating narwhal abundance, and inform the required evaluation of its advantages and disadvantages, and associated statistical assumptions.

    DFO Resource Management originally requested interpretation of all of the digital imagery from the 2013 survey, and proposes that the NMMPRC review the complete reading and review the entire digital record in October 2016 (with priority given to the Eclipse Sound and Admiralty Inlet stocks). This approach would result in information or advice available for the scheduled revision of the narwhal IFMP (which expires in March 2017).

    At this time, it is uncertain how similar the results of this comparison will be and what factors may cause differences between the two survey methods.  However, the results will assist decisions about using the digital imagery acquired from the other 2013 survey areas (e.g., whether it is necessary to read all of the remaining digital imagery for the other narwhal stocks surveyed in 2013), how the visual and photographic survey abundance estimates compare,  how they can be combined in future, and whether revised scientific advice concerning narwhal abundance and sustainable harvest are appropriate.

Expected Publication:

4.  Walrus population abundance estimates and sustainable harvest recommendations for the Hudson Bay/Davis Strait (HBDS) and South and East Hudson Bay (SEHB) stocks

Context:  Walrus is a key fishery for DFO and is reported on via the national Sustainability Checklists.  DFO is continuing to build on the Sustainable Fisheries Framework for key fisheries that contains existing DFO policies for resource management decisions, and builds on new policies to address ecosystems factors and precautionary considerations.

There are six (6) walrus stocks or stock units in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Increasing national and international attention regarding how Canada is managing these walrus stocks requires the Department to be able to demonstrate that the harvests are sustainable, or take appropriate actions if current harvest levels are deemed unsustainable.

Currently, Resource Management in the Central and Arctic Region is leading the development of an IFMP for Atlantic walrus, and where there is sufficient information to do so, sustainable harvest levels will be included.  Surveys, along with abundance estimates and PBR estimates, have been completed for the Baffin Bay-High Arctic (BB-HA) and Foxe Basin (FB) walrus stocks. However, abundance estimates and sustainable harvest level advice are still required for the SEHB and HBDS stocks. This advice will be used by the NWMB and the Nunavik Marine Region Wildlife Board (NMRWB) in the establishment of total allowable harvest (TAH), Total Allowable Takes (TAT) and BNLs. The management of the HBDS and SEHB stocks is shared between Central and Arctic, and Quebec regions, as well as between two land claims areas (Nunavut and Nunavik). Greenland also harvests from the HBDS stock.

The Atlantic walrus is currently listed on Appendix III of the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES). As such, anyone wishing to export walrus parts or derivatives from Canada must obtain an export permit from the Canadian CITES administration. However, a non-detriment finding is not required for species listed on Appendix III of CITES. In 2009 and again in 2012, the United States consulted with range states on the possibility of putting forward a proposal to uplist walrus to Appendix II, citing potentially unsustainable exploitation rates, lack of scientific information on population abundance, high value international trade in walrus ivory, and the difficulty in distinguishing fresh ivory from fossilized as some reasons for seeking increased protection. If listed on Appendix II, a non-detrimental finding would be required for any continued trade in this species.  It is likely that the USA will again consider submitting a proposal to uplist walrus to Appendix II in 2016. Having a formal management plan in place that identifies sustainable harvest levels will greatly assist in Canada being able to demonstrate sustainable management of walrus.

Objectives: To evaluate population abundance estimates and provide advice on sustainable harvest levels for the Hudson Bay-Davis Strait (HBDS) and South and East Hudson Bay (SEHB) Atlantic walrus stocks based on a survey conducted in summer 2014.

Expected Publications:

5.  Evaluation of the relevance of historical Foxe Basin Walrus survey data towards determining sustainable harvest levels

Context:  There are six (6) Atlantic walrus stocks or management units in the eastern Canadian Arctic. Increasing national and international attention regarding how Canada is managing these walrus stocks requires the Department to be able to demonstrate a sustainable harvest or take appropriate actions if current harvesting is deemed unsustainable. Science advice was published in 2013 (DFO 2013b) that provided Total Allowable Removal (TAR) estimates for four stocks, including Foxe Basin (FB). Based on the science advice, the current level of harvesting in FB exceeds the TAR, resulting in a conservation concern for this stock.

The current TAR advice (DFO 2013b) for FB was based on PBR estimates using a recovery factor (FR) of 0.5 as there was no information available, at that time, regarding trends in stock abundance. For several stocks, PBR was calculated using FR= 1.0, as there was no statistical evidence of decline in walrus numbers. DFO (2013b) provided a range in estimates of PBR and TARs for each stock. In March 2015, survey data were identified that may provide information on trend in abundance of FB walrus, and may influence the recovery factor used in calculating PBR for this stock.    

Objectives: To evaluate whether historic survey data can be compared or used to provide information on a trend in stock abundance for FB walrus.  If the historical data are relevant for evaluating the FB stock trend, determine whether FR = 0.5 is most appropriate or if it is appropriate to calculate PBR using a different FR resulting in an updated range of TARs for this stock.

Expected Publications:

6.  Eastern Canada / West Greenland (ECWG) Bowhead Whale - Historic Population Estimates

Context: ECWG Bowhead is a key fishery for DFO C&A Region.  DFO has moved toward a Sustainable Fisheries Framework for key fisheries that contain existing DFO policies for resource management decisions, and builds new policies to address ecosystems factors and precautionary considerations, in support of the departmental direction toward Ecosystem Based (Fisheries) Management. Updated science, a science plan and a documented management approach is required for fisheries to be considered to be sustainably managed in this model.  The Nunavut Land Claims Agreement (NLCA) requires a valid conservation basis on which to limit Inuit harvest, which requires science advice that we can be confident in.

Regional FM and Science have jointly developed a multi-year management plan that includes determining historic estimates of population abundance to inform the decision-making framework for this fishery that incorporates the Precautionary Approach.

DFO Science advice will be incorporated into draft IFMPs submitted for NWMB decision. Hunters will be affected if their current harvest exceeds sustainable levels.  If current harvests are less than the recommended TAH, the allocation of any remaining surplus (above the BNL) is the responsibility of the NWMB.

Objectives: To evaluate whether historical bowhead population abundance can reliably be determined using available catch statistics, and if so to estimate the historical abundance.  This is part of a longer term series of questions related to the need for a risk based population model to assess sustainable harvest levels for ECWG bowhead whales.

Expected Publication:

7.  Harp Seal Harvest Strategies

Context:  In 2014, Canada submitted a request to NAFO for the Working Group on Harp and Hooded Seals (WGHARP) to explore hypothetical management options to reduce the Northwest Atlantic harp seal population. The WG, which met in November 2014, felt that this exercise should be conducted within the context of a Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE). An MSE provides an approach for addressing both policy and process conflicts in harvest co-management. It is explicitly designed to examine ongoing or potential harvest strategies that are robust to uncertainty and natural variation, and that balance biological and socio-economic objectives. The management strategy evaluation process involves defining a set of operational objectives, identification of candidate management procedures (i.e. data collection, stock assessment, and harvest control rules), and evaluates the performance procedures of the procedures against the objectives. In contrast to the earlier traditional approach to management, it does not necessarily identify an optimal strategy or decision. Instead it seeks to explicitly identify some of the trade-offs that may be necessary to achieve different management objectives.

The key components of this approach include: a clearly defined set of management objectives; fisheries data and stock assessment models; harvest control rule(s), a simulation framework that allows testing of the different management objectives taking into account different levels of uncertainty; and a means of calculating and presenting how the management objectives performed during the simulations, expressed in terms of conservation, socio-economic or other criteria (performance indicators).

The WG discussed how the scenarios (below) might be examined within an MSE environment. Since there are two models currently being used in the assessments of harp seals, one in the NE Atlantic and another for the NW Atlantic population, it was suggested that initially, the behaviour of the NE Atlantic model would be examined using the NW Atlantic assessment data to see how the model behaved when annual reproductive rate data were available. At the same time, the NW Atlantic model would examine the impacts of the different catch options on the population. Additional considerations included: updating the projections every 5 years, by assuming a new survey was flown to estimate pup production; assuming two different future trends in reproductive rates. One set of projections would assume that reproductive rates varied in a density-dependent manner, while a second series would assume that future reproductive rates would vary in a manner that has been observed over the last 5 years. The model comparisons and projections have been carried out over the past year, and reviewed by the WG via correspondence.

Objectives: Specifically, WGHARP was asked to evaluate the following:

  1. Identify the catches necessary to reduce the population to 5.4M animals (the most recent estimate of N70, or 70% of the maximum observed population size) assuming:
    1. Catches consisting of 90% YOY and 50% YOY
    2. Over time periods of 5, 10,and 15 years
  2. Identify the catches necessary to reduce the population to 6.8M (an intermediate level between the current estimate and N70) assuming:
    1. Catches consisting of 90% YOY and 50% YOY
    2. Over time periods of 5, 10,and 15 years
  3. What would be the sustainable future catches possible with a reduced population and assuming there is a 95% probability of remaining above the Limit Reference Point (defined as the current N30).

Expected Publications:

8.  St. Lawrence Estuary beluga abundance based on 2014 visual survey

Context:  Until recently, the St. Lawrence Estuary (SLE) beluga population was listed as Threatened under the Species at Risk Act.  However, a comprehensive review of the status of the SLE beluga population in 2013 (DFO 2013/076) concluded that the population had moved from a period of relative stability to one of declining abundance in the early 2000s.  This new information led to a new designation of the population as “Endangered” by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) in 2014.

Since the last SLE beluga aerial survey was conducted in 2009 there has been considerable growth in ecomonic/development activity in the SLE (e.g. TransCanada Corp.'s proposed marine oil terminal in Cacouna) and in summer 2014, a new SLE beluga survey was undertaken.  It is important to note that the 2014 survey could not incorporate a photographic component (i.e. completed the visual survey only), and therefore, the 2014 survey represents a departure from previous survey methods which incorporated both components, and will therefore have to be taken into account when comparing results of the 2014 survey to previous estimates.

Objectives: To evaluate the results of the 2014 SLE beluga visual survey to provide a current abundance estimate.

Expected Publications:

Additional Expected Publication

In addition to the expected publications listed under each topic, meeting Proceedings will also be produced.

Participation

The following groups were invited to participate in the meeting:

References

DFO. 2013a. Advice on size and trend of the Cumberland Sound beluga whale population, 1990 to 2009. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2013/003.

DFO. 2013b. Estimates of Abundance and Total Allowable Removals for Atlantic Walrus (Odobenus rosmarus rosmarus) in the Canadian Arctic. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2013/034.

Notice

Participation to CSAS peer review meetings is by invitation only.

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